12. Zero alternative for Pesisir Tropicana

Within the formulation of the zero alternative, it should be decided if autonomous development are included or not. If not, than the zero alternative is the same as the existing situation.

In this exercise, we include the autonomous developments of the Pesisir Tropicana Region as follows:
 
Sector Natural growth rate (%)
Tin mining 1.0
Agriculture 1.5
Fisheries 2.0
Aquaculture 0.0
Tourism 1.0


[Questions phase 3]



13. Scenarios

Scenarios reflect exogene influences. For Pesisir Tropicana, scenarios could be based on assumptions on:

 

For the exercise, we assume a scenario based on population growth and price of tin as follows:

  1. Population growth = 3.5%
  2. Yearly increase of tin price: 1.0 %

[Questions phase 3]



14. Alternative investments

Alternative investments are in :


[Questions phase 3]



15. Boundary conditions

It will not be possible to implement all alternative investments in such a way that the potentials of each option can be utilized fully, as (amongst others):

 

Further, trying to implement all these options may also lead to conflicts in planning and resources management. For example, is there enough coastal land for the development of residential housing, tourist hotels and aquaculture? How might the construction of a new port and the increased shipping affect existing fisheries and the conditions of the national reserve? If increasing industrial activities will cause serious water pollution, what is its effect on agriculture, fisheries, environment and recreational activities? Which measures should be taken to prevent or reduce these conflicts, and how can an optimal balance be achieved?

For the exercise, we consider that boundary conditions follow from objectives, like for instance:

 

Then the following alternatives can then be defined:

  1. Investment in mining and tourism, as to create good employment + investments in agriculture and fisheries. To decrease the negative effects of pollution because of mining (heavy metals) and tourism and fisheries (E-coli), investments are also made on waste water treatment and tailing treatment;
  2. Investment in fisheries, agriculture and aquaculture + waste water treatment plants.

[Questions phase 3] [Questions phase 4]