16. Effects of the alternatives

The alternatives are based on the earlier defined scenario

  1. population growth of 3.5%
  2. yearly increase in tin price: 1.0%

 

In addition, we assume the time-horizon set at 2020.

Zero alternative (no investment; autonomous development)
 
Criterion Value
Total income 459 MUlc
Income per head of population 432 Ulc
Number of jobs 227,000
Employment rate 53.4%
E-coli bacteria 1,486
Heavy metal 1,120
Phosphates 1,330
Mangrove area 17,760

Alternatives 1 and 2 are based on objectives that aim at good employment rates, agriculture and fisheries, and income generation.

Alternative 1: Tourism and mining
 
Sector Investment (MUlc)
Mining 67
Tourism 50
Fisheries 150
Agriculture 150
Aquaculture 201
Waste water treatment 150
Tailing treatment 32
Criterion Value
Total income 579 MUlc
Income per head of population 545 Ulc
Number of jobs 410,000
Employment rate 96.6%
E-coli bacteria 0
Heavy metal 0
Phosphates 5,335
Mangrove area 22,367

Alternative 2: Fisheries, agriculture and aquaculture
 
Sector Investment (MUlc)
Mining 0
Tourism 0
Fisheries 175
Agriculture 254
Aquaculture 208
Waste water treatment 158
Tailing treatment 5
Criterion Value
Total income 561 MUlc
Income per head of population 528 Ulc
Number of jobs 428,000
Employment rate 100.8%
E-coli bacteria 0
Heavy metal 0
Phosphates 6,788
Mangrove area 22,620

Alternatives 3 and 4 are based on objectives that aim at rise in income, industrial development and stable employment rate on the short and the long term.

Alternative 3: Short term (2010)
 
Sector Investment (MUlc)
Mining 450
Tourism 0
Fisheries 0
Agriculture 0
Aquaculture 115
Waste water treatment 25
Tailing treatment 210
Criterion Value
Total income 556 MUlc
Income per head of population 652 Ulc
Number of jobs 325,000
Employment rate 95.3%
E-coli bacteria 1056
Heavy metal 0
Phosphates 2,330
Mangrove area 20,590

Alternative 4: Long term (2040)
 
Sector Investment (MUlc)
Mining 450
Tourism 0
Fisheries 0
Agriculture 0
Aquaculture 115
Waste water treatment 25
Tailing treatment 210
Criterion Value
Total income 900 MUlc
Income per head of population 607 Ulc
Number of jobs 467,000
Employment rate 78,7%
E-coli bacteria 1,446
Heavy metal 2,320
Phosphates 2,780
Mangrove area 9,773


[Questions phase 4]



17. B/C ratio

No! The B/C ratio only uses information that is expressed in monetary terms: MUlc's. So, only information from the judgement parameter "Total Income" could be used, whereas information from the other judgement parameters (income per head, number of jobs, employment rate, E-coli, heavy metal, phosphate, mangrove area) would be neglected completely. A decision, based on the B/C ration can therefore only be relevant for a decision maker who would be solely interested in the "Total Income". Such a decision maker can be considered as non-existing.

 


[Questions phase 4] [Questions phase 5]